Modelling emission reduction pathways

Rapid changes in Australia’s emission targets and legislation have broadened the types of economic modelling needed to plan emission reduction pathways. 

A microsimulation model should be created for each Safeguard facility, reflecting its resources, profitability and abatement costs.  This would help project the behaviour of the facility under different legislative and economic assumptions.

Climate change projections should be used to model the growth or decline of regional industries.  Higher temperatures are likely to reduce irrigation water flows, and reduce tourism.  Australia’s realisable carbon sequestration capability may be affected.

Residents in affected regions should be given the results of Safeguard and climate modelling for their region, and the underlying assumptions.  This will require relaxation of the privacy rules restricting publication of Safeguard data.

This modelling and publication should help the Authority meet its statutory roles.